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Os Marialvas vs Marinhense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Camilo T.
50' Event
Sonhi Y.
90'
Adebanjo J. O.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Os Marialvas and Marinhense finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Os Marialvas
15%
Draws
7%
Marinhense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Marinhense haven't matched Os Marialvas's recent run of results.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Os Marialvas taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Os Marialvas Marinhense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.34 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Marinhense
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Os Marialvas
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Marinhense
2:1
Nov 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Os Marialvas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Sonhi Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Marinhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Camilo T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Os Marialvas 95 / 100
Marinhense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Os Marialvas Marinhense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Os Marialvas's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Marinhense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Os Marialvas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Os Marialvas VS Marinhense
0.75 Goals Scored 0.83
0.5 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Os Marialvas

(Home)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
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Marinhense

(Away)
18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0
Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)