Sport Picks
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 
Match Events
65'
65'
Trindade T.
65'
65'
Trindade T.
90'
90'
Figueiredo H.
AI Match Summary
The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Os Marialvas and Sertanense finished 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
35%
19%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Os Marialvas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sertanense haven't matched Os Marialvas's recent run of results.
- Os Marialvas are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Os Marialvas | Sertanense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 3 |
| Draws | 8 | 13 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 0.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.84 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 11, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense
0:0
Mar 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense
2:1
Dec 8, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Os Marialvas
1:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Os Marialvas 95 / 100
Sertanense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Os Marialvas Sertanense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Os Marialvas scored in 74% of their last 31 games.
Sertanense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Os Marialvas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Os Marialvas VS Sertanense
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Os Marialvas
(Home) 01 Nov
Os Marialvas
2 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
25 Oct
Fazendense
1 : 2 Os Marialvas
16 Oct
Chaves
2 : 1 Os Marialvas
11 Oct
Os Marialvas
0 : 0 Sertanense
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1 Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 7
01 Nov
Os Marialvas
2 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
11 Oct
Os Marialvas
0 : 0 Sertanense
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0 Fatima
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2 Oliveira Hospital
12 Apr
Os Marialvas
0 : 0 Naval 1893
Page 1 of 3
Sertanense
(Away) 01 Nov
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 0 Sertanense
25 Oct
Sertanense
2 : 2 Fatima
11 Oct
Os Marialvas
0 : 0 Sertanense
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
Page 1 of 6
01 Nov
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 0 Sertanense
11 Oct
Os Marialvas
0 : 0 Sertanense
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Os Marialvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:4 | 16 |
| 2 | O Elvas CAD | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13:6 | 16 |
| 3 | Mortagua FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 14 |
| 4 | Oliveira Hospital | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 5 | Uniao Da Serra | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:8 | 12 |
| 6 | SB Castelo Branco | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:14 | 10 |
| 7 | Malveira | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 8 | Fatima | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15:11 | 8 |
| 9 | Nogueirense | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11:13 | 8 |
| 10 | Naval 1893 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:7 | 7 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 13 | GD Os Nazarenos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8:23 | 1 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)
