Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ostersund vs Varnamo

Sweden Sweden

Superettan Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersund
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Meriluoto K.
31' Event
Coulibaly S.
Own Goal
35' Event
Begic A.
Assist: Marklund S.

AI Match Summary

The Superettan game between Ostersund and Varnamo finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ostersund.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Ostersund
20%
Draws
33%
Varnamo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ostersund

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ostersund come out ahead of Varnamo on wins alone.
  • Ostersund are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ostersund Clean Sheet 20%
Varnamo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ostersund Varnamo
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 7
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Superettan
Ostersund vs Varnamo
3:2
Sep 29, 2015 Superettan
Varnamo vs Ostersund
1:0
Apr 25, 2015 Superettan
Ostersund vs Varnamo
1:1
Aug 2, 2014 Superettan
Varnamo vs Ostersund
1:2
Apr 12, 2014 Superettan
Ostersund vs Varnamo
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ostersund Compare

Top Goalscorer Begic A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marklund S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Varnamo Compare

Top Goalscorer Andersson H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Meriluoto K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ostersund 42 / 100
Varnamo 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ostersund Varnamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Varnamo conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.

Ostersund found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Ostersund has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ostersund VS Varnamo
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ostersund

(Home)
07 Aug
Ostersund
1 : 0
Sundsvall
01 Aug
Ostersund
1 : 0
Oster
26 Jul
Norrby
2 : 2
Ostersund
18 Jul
Ostersund
2 : 0
Landskrona
11 Jul
Ostersund
2 : 4
Orebro
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Varnamo

(Away)
11 Aug
Helsingborg
1 : 2
Varnamo
03 Aug
Orebro
1 : 3
Varnamo
25 Jul
Varnamo
0 : 0
Brage
19 Jul
Varnamo
2 : 3
Ljungskile
13 Jul
Varnamo
0 : 2
Naestved IF
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norrkoping 18 12 2 4 32:10 38
2 Varberg 18 10 3 5 34:24 33
3 Falkenberg 18 9 5 4 34:27 32
4 Ostersund 18 9 5 4 28:21 32
5 Sandviken 18 8 4 6 33:23 28
6 Landskrona 18 8 4 6 24:19 28
7 Nordic United 18 7 7 4 29:26 28
8 Oster 18 8 2 8 27:27 26
9 Oddevold 18 6 7 5 29:26 25
10 Helsingborg 18 7 3 8 31:36 24
11 Norrby 18 4 10 4 24:24 22
12 Brage 18 5 5 8 30:33 20
13 Ljungskile 18 5 5 8 23:26 20
14 Varnamo 18 5 2 11 22:36 17
15 Orebro 18 3 6 9 15:28 15
16 Sundsvall 18 3 0 15 13:42 9
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)