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Ostiamare vs Recanatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Badje I.
29' Event
Spinosa M.
53' Event
Orfano M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Ostiamare and Recanatese finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ostiamare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Ostiamare
35%
Draws
30%
Recanatese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ostiamare carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Ostiamare Clean Sheet 68%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ostiamare Recanatese
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 7
Draws 5 10
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ostiamare vs Recanatese
4:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Ostiamare
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ostiamare Compare

Top Goalscorer Badje I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Spinosa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Recanatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Nanapere E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ostiamare 41 / 100
Recanatese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ostiamare Recanatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ostiamare Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Ostiamare scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recanatese let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Ostiamare went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ostiamare VS Recanatese
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ostiamare

(Home)
27 Sept
Ostiamare
1 : 1
Forli FC
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Ostiamare
0 : 1
Ravenna
13 Sept
Sassari Torres
3 : 2
Ostiamare
05 Sept
Vis Pesaro
1 : 2
Ostiamare
Page 1 of 6

Recanatese

(Away)
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1
Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Pietralunga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)