Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

2 - 0

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka

Our Tip

Match Events

54'

Lazarz P.

(Penalty)

90'

Belych Y.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 game between Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski and Sparta Kazimierza Wielka finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Draws

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski a 90% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 42%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Clean Sheet 20%

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	20	2
Draws	6	1
Losses	6	27
Goals Scored	1.88	0.71
Goals Conceded	1.13	3.14
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	3.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 III Liga - Group IV

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Sparta Kazimierza Wielka

Possession: 57% - 55% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Nov 16, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 3 - 4

2:4

May 21, 2016 III Liga - Group VII

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Sparta Kazimierza Wielka

Possession: 59% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

4:0

Oct 31, 2015 III Liga - Group VII

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Compare

Top Goalscorer Belych Y.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65

Avg xA / game 0.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 85 / 100

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Sparta Kazimierza Wielka

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OST Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sparta Kazimierza Wielka's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Solid form: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski VS Sparta Kazimierza Wielka

1.88 Goals Scored 0.71

1.13 Goals Conceded 3.14

88% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 86%

13% Over 3.5 71%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avia Swidnik	34	23	8	3	84:35	77
2	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	22	8	4	66:30	74
3	Chelmianka Chelm	34	21	9	4	65:31	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	66:59	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	51:43	55
6	Czarni Polaniec	34	16	5	13	59:49	53
7	Biala Podlaska	34	14	10	10	60:48	52
8	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	14	9	11	61:45	51
9	Wislanie Skawina	34	15	6	13	52:51	51
10	Wisla II	34	15	4	15	67:58	49
11	Wisloka Debica	34	12	12	10	37:35	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	59:52	43
13	Naprzod Jedrzejow	34	11	5	18	45:55	38
14	Kolbuszowa Dolna	34	11	4	19	36:54	37
15	Stal Krasnik	34	9	7	18	42:52	34
16	Cracovia II	34	9	6	19	44:71	33
17	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	5	4	25	35:80	19
18	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	34	4	1	29	29:110	13