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Ozolnieki vs Tukums 2000

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup 2011/2012
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Tukums 2000 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ozolnieki
15%
Draws
34%
Tukums 2000
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ozolnieki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tukums 2000 come out ahead of Ozolnieki on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Ozolnieki taking it.
  • Tukums 2000 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tukums 2000, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Ozolnieki Clean Sheet 19%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ozolnieki Tukums 2000
Matches Played 8 31
Wins 3 6
Draws 0 8
Losses 5 17
Goals Scored 1.63 1.48
Goals Conceded 2.75 1.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2011 Latvian Cup
Ozolnieki vs Tukums 2000
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ozolnieki 58 / 100
Tukums 2000 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ozolnieki Tukums 2000

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ozolnieki Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 has conceded goals in 94% of their last 31 outings.

Attacking prowess: Ozolnieki scored in 63% of their last 8 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: Tukums 2000 has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tukums 2000
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 2.63
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ozolnieki

(Home)
16 Jun
Ozolnieki
0 : 2
Grobina
17 Jul
Ozolnieki
0 : 3
Tukums 2000
07 Jul
Ozolnieki
4 : 1
Upesciems
14 Jun
FK Auda Riga
6 : 2
Ozolnieki
06 Jun
Ozolnieki
4 : 0
Mersrags
Page 1 of 2

Tukums 2000

(Away)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
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Zelis Gulbene -
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FK Dobele 0
Marupe 1
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RFS -
FK Metta -
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BFC Daugavpils -
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Ozolnieki 4
Mersrags 0
Sigulda 0
FK Auda Riga 1
FK Aluksne 2
Bebri 0
Austrumi 1
Upesciems 2
FK Auda Riga -
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Tukums 2000 -
Valmiera -
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Ogre -
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Olimps Riga -
Spartaks Jurmala -
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Avantis 3
FK Ergli 0
FK Olaine 0
Iecava 1
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Grobina 1
Kekava 0
Aizkraukle 0
FK Smiltene 3
Brali 4
Jelgava/Jauniesi 3
Plavinas 3
FK Madona Kvarcs 1
FK 1625 Liepaja -
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Rezekne -
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FK Liepaja -
1/64-finals
Skonto -
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Zelis Gulbene 3
Marupe 1
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RFS -
FK Metta -
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BFC Daugavpils -
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FC Jurmala -
FK Daugava Riga -
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Ozolnieki 2
FK Auda Riga 6
FK Aluksne 0
Upesciems 3
FK Auda Riga -
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Tukums 2000 -
Valmiera -
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Ogre -
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Gulbene -
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Olimps Riga -
Spartaks Jurmala -
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Avantis 0
Iecava 3
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Ventspils -
FC Daugava Daugavpils -
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Grobina -
FK Smiltene -
Brali 1
FK Madona Kvarcs 6
FK 1625 Liepaja -
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Rezekne -
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FK Liepaja -
1/32-finals
Skonto -
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Zelis Gulbene 0
RFS 12
FK Metta 3
BFC Daugavpils 1
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FC Jurmala -
FK Daugava Riga -
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Ozolnieki 4
Upesciems 1
FK Auda Riga 0
Tukums 2000 2
Valmiera 4
Ogre 0
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Gulbene -
Jelgava -
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Olimps Riga -
Spartaks Jurmala 5
Iecava 0
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Ventspils -
FC Daugava Daugavpils -
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Grobina 0
FK Madona Kvarcs 1
FK 1625 Liepaja 2
Rezekne 0
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FK Liepaja -
1/16-finals
Skonto -
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RFS -
FK Metta -
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FC Jurmala -
FK Daugava Riga -
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Ozolnieki 0
Tukums 2000 3
Valmiera -
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Gulbene -
Jelgava -
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Olimps Riga -
Spartaks Jurmala -
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Ventspils -
FC Daugava Daugavpils -
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FK Madona Kvarcs -
FK 1625 Liepaja -
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FK Liepaja -
1/8-finals
Skonto 2
RFS 0
FK Metta 0
FC Jurmala 3
FK Daugava Riga 4
Tukums 2000 0
Valmiera 1
Gulbene 3
Jelgava 3
Olimps Riga 1
Spartaks Jurmala 1
Ventspils 2
FC Daugava Daugavpils 11
FK Madona Kvarcs 0
FK 1625 Liepaja 1
FK Liepaja 3
Quarter-finals
Skonto 1
FC Jurmala 0
FK Daugava Riga 1
Gulbene 3
Jelgava 2
Ventspils 1
FC Daugava Daugavpils 0
FK Liepaja 1
Semi-finals
Skonto 1
Gulbene 0
Jelgava 1
FK Liepaja 4
Final
Skonto 2
FK Liepaja 1