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Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paderborn host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Paderborn at 1.77 goals for, 1.4 against; VfB Stuttgart at 2.53 for, 1.37 against. Past meetings favor VfB Stuttgart slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 31, 2023, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.50 xG vs 2.13) point toward VfB Stuttgart. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Paderborn
15%
Draws
48%
VfB Stuttgart
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: VfB Stuttgart

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: VfB Stuttgart at 2.53 per game, Paderborn at 1.77.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on VfB Stuttgart taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and VfB Stuttgart have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 10%
VfB Stuttgart Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paderborn VfB Stuttgart
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 15
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.77 2.53
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2023 DFB Pokal
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart
1:2
May 23, 2015 Bundesliga
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart
1:2
Dec 20, 2014 Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Paderborn
0:0
Oct 31, 2007 DFB Pokal
VfB Stuttgart vs Paderborn
3:2
Aug 31, 2002 DFB Pokal
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paderborn 10 / 100
VfB Stuttgart 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paderborn VfB Stuttgart

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VfB Stuttgart Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Paderborn scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: VfB Stuttgart conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Paderborn went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paderborn VS VfB Stuttgart
1.5 Goals Scored 3.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Paderborn

(Home)
30 Sept
DC United
0 : 1
Paderborn
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
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VfB Stuttgart

(Away)
01 Oct
VfB Stuttgart
5 : 0
Greuther Furth
25 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 0
Heidenheim
19 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
0 : 1
Dortmund
12 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
09 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1
Viking
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)