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Padova vs Empoli

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Guarino G.
46'
Sub
Sgarbi F. In: Faedo C.
Out: Sgarbi F.
63'
Faedo C.

AI Match Summary

Padova in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Padova
15%
Draws
39%
Empoli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Padova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Padova lately — more wins on the board than Empoli.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Padova Clean Sheet 68%
Empoli Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Empoli
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 6
Draws 5 10
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Empoli
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Serie B
Empoli vs Padova
3:1
Feb 22, 2014 Serie B
Padova vs Empoli
0:1
Sep 21, 2013 Serie B
Empoli vs Padova
3:1
Feb 23, 2013 Serie B
Empoli vs Padova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Bortolussi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Empoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 41 / 100
Empoli 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Empoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Padova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padova scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Empoli let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Padova has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Empoli
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
19 Sept
Palermo
2 : 1
Padova
12 Sept
Padova
1 : 0
Ascoli
06 Sept
Cremonese
3 : 1
Padova
29 Aug
Padova
1 : 1
Verona
23 Aug
Pisa
0 : 1
Padova
Page 1 of 6

Empoli

(Away)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
11 Sept
Empoli
0 : 1
Arezzo
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
30 Aug
Mantova
3 : 1
Empoli
22 Aug
Empoli
1 : 0
Cremonese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)