Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Padova vs Empoli

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Guarino G.
46'
Sub
Sgarbi F. In: Faedo C.
Out: Sgarbi F.
63'
Faedo C.

AI Match Summary

Padova in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Padova
44%
Draws
20%
Empoli
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Padova lately — more wins on the board than Empoli.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Padova Clean Sheet 19%
Empoli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padova Empoli
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Empoli
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Serie B
Empoli vs Padova
3:1
Feb 22, 2014 Serie B
Padova vs Empoli
0:1
Sep 21, 2013 Serie B
Empoli vs Padova
3:1
Feb 23, 2013 Serie B
Empoli vs Padova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Bortolussi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Empoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padova 36 / 100
Empoli 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padova Empoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EMP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padova scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Empoli let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Padova has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Padova VS Empoli
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Padova

(Home)
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Padova
1 : 0
Pescara
25 Apr
Entella
1 : 0
Padova
Page 1 of 6

Empoli

(Away)
25 Jul
Empoli
1 : 0
Entella
08 May
Monza
2 : 2
Empoli
01 May
Empoli
1 : 0
Avellino
25 Apr
Venezia
2 : 0
Empoli
19 Apr
Empoli
1 : 1
Entella
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)