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Padroense vs Chaves

Portugal Portugal

Second Division - Zona Norte
Padroense Logo

Padroense

1 - 0
FT
Chaves Logo

Chaves

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Second Division - Zona Norte game between Padroense and Chaves finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Padroense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Padroense
20%
Draws
51%
Chaves
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chaves come out ahead of Padroense on wins alone.
  • Chaves are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Second Division - Zona Norte form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Padroense Clean Sheet 17%
Chaves Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padroense Chaves
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 5 14
Draws 5 2
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 0.77 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2013 Second Division - Zona Norte
Padroense vs Chaves
1:0
Nov 25, 2012 Second Division - Zona Norte
Chaves vs Padroense
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padroense 28 / 100
Chaves 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padroense Chaves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chaves Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chaves conceded in 73% of 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Padroense found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Padroense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Chaves
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Padroense

(Home)
28 Apr
Padroense
1 : 2
Tirsense
21 Apr
Infesta
2 : 1
Padroense
14 Apr
Padroense
2 : 2
AD Fafe
07 Apr
Ribeirao
3 : 0
Padroense
30 Mar
Padroense
4 : 0
AD Limianos
Page 1 of 6

Chaves

(Away)
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3
Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0
Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1
Chaves
23 Aug
Chaves
2 : 2
AFS
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chaves 30 16 10 4 43:21 58
2 Ribeirao 30 15 10 5 43:24 55
3 SC Mirandela 30 15 8 7 41:29 53
4 Vizela 30 14 9 7 41:29 51
5 AD Limianos 30 12 9 9 33:30 45
6 Tirsense 30 11 12 7 35:32 45
7 Famalicao 30 11 10 9 42:35 43
8 Varzim 30 8 16 6 31:26 40
9 AD Fafe 30 10 10 10 37:33 40
10 Boavista 30 9 11 10 44:40 38
11 Amarante FC 30 7 12 11 30:33 33
12 Gondomar 30 7 12 11 25:27 33
13 Vilaverdense FC 30 7 12 11 22:36 33
14 GD Joane 30 7 7 16 27:48 28
15 Infesta 30 7 4 19 30:51 25
16 Padroense 30 5 6 19 23:53 21
Promotion - Second Division - Zona Centro (Play Offs)