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Paduano EC vs Friburguense Prediction & H2H Stats

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Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Carlos Daniel Barbosa J.
45' Event
Felix M.
61' Event
Araujo J.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Paduano EC and Friburguense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paduano EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Paduano EC
35%
Draws
32%
Friburguense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Paduano EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 68%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Friburguense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 7
Draws 5 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.07 0.71
Goals Conceded 1 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 5, 2025 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Friburguense
2:0
Sep 28, 2024 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Friburguense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paduano EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Felix M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Araujo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Friburguense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 42 / 100
Friburguense 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Friburguense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paduano EC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Paduano EC scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Friburguense has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Friburguense
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
01 Oct
Paduano EC
1 : 1
Campos AA
27 Sept
Paraty
0 : 3
Paduano EC
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 6

Friburguense

(Away)
02 Oct
7 de Abril
1 : 2
Friburguense
27 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 2
Belford Roxo
20 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 0
Campos AA
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)