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Padura vs Beasain

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

82' Event
Zubillaga J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 game between Padura and Beasain finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Beasain.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Padura
20%
Draws
47%
Beasain
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Beasain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Beasain come out ahead of Padura on wins alone.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Beasain have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Padura Clean Sheet 20%
Beasain Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padura Beasain
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 12
Draws 7 10
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.93 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs Beasain
0:1
Nov 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Padura
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs Beasain
3:1
Nov 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Padura
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padura Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Beasain Compare

Top Goalscorer Zubillaga J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padura 36 / 100
Beasain 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padura Beasain

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Beasain Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padura found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Beasain let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Padura stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Beasain
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Padura

(Home)
11 May
Padura
3 : 0
San Viator
03 May
Derio
2 : 1
Padura
30 Apr
Eibar C
1 : 2
Padura
26 Apr
Portugalete
3 : 1
Padura
17 Apr
Padura
1 : 1
Santurtzi
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Beasain

(Away)
22 Aug
Beasain
3 : 1
Alaves C
15 Aug
Beasain
2 : 1
Touring KE
03 May
Beasain
3 : 2
Zaragoza B
26 Apr
Naxara
1 : 0
Beasain
19 Apr
Beasain
1 : 1
UD Logrones
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Basconia 34 23 7 4 89:32 76
2 Portugalete 34 19 13 2 66:29 70
3 Leioa 34 20 6 8 55:34 66
4 Beasain 34 19 7 8 53:34 64
5 SD Deusto 34 15 9 10 43:35 54
6 Alaves C 34 14 6 14 41:41 48
7 Touring KE 34 13 9 12 39:45 48
8 Derio 34 12 11 11 39:39 47
9 Eibar C 34 12 10 12 46:51 46
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 12 8 14 40:45 44
11 Lagun Onak 34 11 9 14 44:49 42
12 San Ignacio 34 11 9 14 32:41 42
13 SCD Durango 34 9 13 12 43:37 40
14 Pasaia 34 10 9 15 45:60 39
15 Santurtzi 34 8 14 12 46:43 38
16 Urduliz FT 34 9 9 16 37:56 36
17 Padura 34 7 8 19 31:48 29
18 San Viator 34 1 5 28 21:91 8
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 (Play Offs)