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Padura vs CD Vitoria

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Carrasco O.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 game between Padura and CD Vitoria finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Padura
20%
Draws
47%
CD Vitoria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Padura haven't matched CD Vitoria's recent run of results.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and CD Vitoria have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Padura Clean Sheet 19%
CD Vitoria Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Padura CD Vitoria
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 6 23
Draws 7 6
Losses 19 1
Goals Scored 0.91 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.47 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs CD Vitoria
0:1
Jan 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Vitoria vs Padura
3:1
Apr 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Vitoria vs Padura
1:1
Jan 7, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs CD Vitoria
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padura Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

CD Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrasco O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padura 36 / 100
CD Vitoria 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Padura CD Vitoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Vitoria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padura scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Padura went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CD Vitoria has conceded goals in 33% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Padura VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Padura

(Home)
11 May
Padura
3 : 0
San Viator
03 May
Derio
2 : 1
Padura
30 Apr
Eibar C
1 : 2
Padura
26 Apr
Portugalete
3 : 1
Padura
17 Apr
Padura
1 : 1
Santurtzi
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CD Vitoria

(Away)
11 May
CD Vitoria
2 : 2
Pasaia
04 May
Padura
0 : 1
CD Vitoria
01 May
CD Vitoria
2 : 0
Touring KE
27 Apr
San Ignacio
2 : 0
CD Vitoria
20 Apr
CD Vitoria
2 : 0
Beasain
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Vitoria 34 25 7 2 65:17 82
2 Basconia 34 18 10 6 54:32 64
3 Beasain 34 19 6 9 55:36 63
4 SD Deusto 34 17 10 7 45:29 61
5 Portugalete 34 17 9 8 54:32 60
6 Lagun Onak 34 16 9 9 43:33 57
7 SCD Durango 34 14 8 12 47:47 50
8 San Ignacio 34 12 11 11 49:44 47
9 Leioa 34 13 6 15 46:51 45
10 Urduliz FT 34 11 9 14 38:47 42
11 Derio 34 11 9 14 35:35 42
12 Alaves C 34 10 10 14 34:42 40
13 Touring KE 34 9 12 13 39:49 39
14 Padura 34 9 11 14 33:47 38
15 Pasaia 34 9 7 18 23:42 34
16 Anaitasuna FT 34 8 8 18 35:51 32
17 Aurrera Ondarroa 34 5 9 20 26:54 24
18 Anorga 34 3 9 22 31:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 (Play Offs)