Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025

Padura

1 - 3

UD Aretxabaleta

Our Tip

Match Events

34'

Aizpurua J.

42'

Gonzalez A.

77'

Armentia X.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

UD Aretxabaleta in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Aretxabaleta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Padura

17%

Draws

13%

UD Aretxabaleta

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Padura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

UD Aretxabaleta have won more games recently than Padura.
Padura are the model's pick here, at 70%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%

Padura Clean Sheet 15%

UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Padura	UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	6	12
Draws	7	5
Losses	17	14
Goals Scored	0	2
Goals Conceded	0	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Padura vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

1:3

Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Padura

Possession: 59% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Padura Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Aizpurua J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Armentia X.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Padura 66 / 100

UD Aretxabaleta 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Padura UD Aretxabaleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAD Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Aretxabaleta has conceded goals in 90% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Padura scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Padura has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS UD Aretxabaleta

0 Goals Scored 2

0 Goals Conceded 2.13

0% Over 1.5 100%

0% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Basconia	34	23	7	4	89:32	76
2	Portugalete	34	19	13	2	66:29	70
3	Leioa	34	20	6	8	55:34	66
4	Beasain	34	19	7	8	53:34	64
5	SD Deusto	34	15	9	10	43:35	54
6	Alaves C	34	14	6	14	41:41	48
7	Touring KE	34	13	9	12	39:45	48
8	Derio	34	12	11	11	39:39	47
9	Eibar C	34	12	10	12	46:51	46
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	12	8	14	40:45	44
11	Lagun Onak	34	11	9	14	44:49	42
12	San Ignacio	34	11	9	14	32:41	42
13	SCD Durango	34	9	13	12	43:37	40
14	Pasaia	34	10	9	15	45:60	39
15	Santurtzi	34	8	14	12	46:43	38
16	Urduliz FT	34	9	9	16	37:56	36
17	Padura	34	7	8	19	31:48	29
18	San Viator	34	1	5	28	21:91	8