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Pafos vs Aris Limassol

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Bassouamina M.
30' Event
Correia J.
35'
Correia J.

AI Match Summary

Pafos in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pafos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Pafos
30%
Draws
31%
Aris Limassol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pafos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Pafos have won more games recently than Aris Limassol.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Pafos taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Pafos Clean Sheet 19%
Aris Limassol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos Aris Limassol
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 15 7
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.79 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
2:0
Apr 14, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs Pafos
1:1
Mar 1, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs Pafos
2:2
Nov 21, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
2:1
May 4, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Correia J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dragomir V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Aris Limassol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 67 / 100
Aris Limassol 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos Aris Limassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pafos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pafos's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Aris Limassol conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Pafos remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS Aris Limassol
2 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
07 Sept
Pafos
0 : 0
Ol. Nicosia
03 Sept
Omonia
0 : 1
Pafos
30 Aug
Karmiotissa
0 : 3
Pafos
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Aris Limassol

(Away)
26 Sept
Aris Limassol
4 : 2
Omonia 29th May
20 Sept
Aris Limassol
0 : 0
Karmiotissa
14 Sept
Krasava
0 : 1
Aris Limassol
07 Sept
Aris Limassol
1 : 4
Omonia
29 Aug
Aris Limassol
2 : 2
Apollon Limassol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)