Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pafos vs Aris Limassol

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Bassouamina M.
30' Event
Correia J.
35'
Correia J.

AI Match Summary

Pafos in this Cyprus League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pafos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Pafos
17%
Draws
13%
Aris Limassol
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Pafos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Pafos have won more games recently than Aris Limassol.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Pafos taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Pafos Clean Sheet 18%
Aris Limassol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos Aris Limassol
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
2:0
Apr 14, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs Pafos
1:1
Mar 1, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs Pafos
2:2
Nov 21, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
2:1
May 4, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Correia J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dragomir V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Aris Limassol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 67 / 100
Aris Limassol 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos Aris Limassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pafos's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Aris Limassol conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Pafos remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS Aris Limassol
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
16 Jul
Slovan Bratislava
3 : 2
Pafos
12 Jul
Jagiellonia
1 : 0
Pafos
08 Jul
Jablonec
0 : 0
Pafos
03 Jul
Cracovia
1 : 2
Pafos
29 May
Apollon Limassol
0 : 2
Pafos
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Aris Limassol

(Away)
18 Jul
Legia
0 : 2
Aris Limassol
22 May
Aris Limassol
3 : 4
AEK Larnaca
16 May
Apollon Limassol
3 : 2
Aris Limassol
10 May
Pafos
2 : 0
Aris Limassol
06 May
Aris Limassol
1 : 0
APOEL
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Omonia36276388:2487
2AEK Larnaca36209762:3369
3Apollon Limassol36207952:4167
4Pafos361881066:3862
5APOEL361571453:4552
6Aris Limassol361491361:4551
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)