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Pafos vs Monaco

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Alphamega Stadium, Limassol
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Minamino T.
Assist: Akliouche M.
18' Event
David Luiz
Assist: Orsic M.
21'
Camara L.

AI Match Summary

The Champions League 2025/2026 game between Pafos and Monaco finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Pafos
30%
Draws
47%
Monaco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Monaco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Pafos's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Pafos Clean Sheet 17%
Monaco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pafos Monaco
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.76 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 26, 2025 Champions League
Pafos vs Monaco
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer David Luiz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Monaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Minamino T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Balogun F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pafos 41 / 100
Monaco 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pafos Monaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Pafos scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Monaco has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Pafos went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pafos VS Monaco
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pafos

(Home)
20 Aug
Dinamo City
1 : 1
Pafos
13 Aug
Pafos
3 : 3
Salzburg
06 Aug
Salzburg
1 : 0
Pafos
30 Jul
Pafos
4 : 0
Hajduk Split
23 Jul
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Pafos
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Monaco

(Away)
20 Aug
Gornik Zabrze
2 : 3
Monaco
14 Aug
Coventry
2 : 0
Monaco
09 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 3
Monaco
06 Aug
Monaco
1 : 0
Getafe
31 Jul
Monaco
2 : 2
Cercle Brugge
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal 8 8 0 0 23:4 24
2 Bayern Munich 8 7 0 1 22:8 21
3 Liverpool 8 6 0 2 20:8 18
4 Tottenham 8 5 2 1 17:7 17
5 Barcelona 8 5 1 2 22:14 16
6 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 17:10 16
7 Sporting CP 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
8 Manchester City 8 5 1 2 15:9 16
9 Real Madrid 8 5 0 3 21:12 15
10 Inter 8 5 0 3 15:7 15
11 PSG 8 4 2 2 21:11 14
12 Newcastle Utd 8 4 2 2 17:7 14
13 Juventus 8 3 4 1 14:10 13
14 Atl. Madrid 8 4 1 3 17:15 13
15 Atalanta 8 4 1 3 10:10 13
16 Bayer Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 13:14 12
17 Dortmund 8 3 2 3 19:17 11
18 Olympiacos Piraeus 8 3 2 3 10:14 11
19 Club Brugge 8 3 1 4 15:17 10
20 Galatasaray 8 3 1 4 9:11 10
21 Monaco 8 2 4 2 8:14 10
22 Qarabag Agdam 8 3 1 4 13:21 10
23 Bodo/Glimt 8 2 3 3 14:15 9
24 Benfica 8 3 0 5 10:12 9
25 Marseille 8 3 0 5 11:14 9
26 Pafos 8 2 3 3 8:11 9
27 Royale Union SG 8 3 0 5 8:17 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 16:16 8
29 Ath Bilbao 8 2 2 4 9:14 8
30 Napoli 8 2 2 4 9:15 8
31 FC Copenhagen 8 2 2 4 12:21 8
32 Ajax 8 2 0 6 8:21 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 10:21 4
34 Slavia Prague 8 0 3 5 5:19 3
35 Villarreal 8 0 1 7 5:18 1
36 Kairat Almaty 8 0 1 7 7:22 1
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)