Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paganese vs Lupa Frascati - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
De Felice F.
72' Event
Sicurella G.
80'
Esposito G.

AI Match Summary

Paganese in this Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Paganese
30%
Draws
39%
Lupa Frascati
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lupa Frascati

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Paganese have won more games recently than Lupa Frascati.
  • Model gives Paganese a 31% chance of winning this.
  • Paganese have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paganese, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Paganese have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%
Lupa Frascati Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paganese Lupa Frascati
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.32 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.05 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Lupa Frascati
3:2
Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Lupa Frascati vs Paganese
1:1
Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Lupa Frascati
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer De Felice F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sicurella G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Lupa Frascati Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Angelo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Giannetti E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paganese 50 / 100
Lupa Frascati 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paganese Lupa Frascati

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paganese scored in 76% of their last 38 games.

Defensive concern: Lupa Frascati conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Paganese stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paganese VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Paganese

(Home)
07 Oct
Paganese
1 : 2
Real Normanna
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 8

Lupa Frascati

(Away)
14 May
Paganese
3 : 2
Lupa Frascati
07 May
Lupa Frascati
3 : 1
Cassino
30 Apr
Sorrento
2 : 1
Lupa Frascati
23 Apr
Lupa Frascati
1 : 1
Paganese
16 Apr
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 : 0
Lupa Frascati
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Paganese 3
Lupa Frascati 2
Casertana 3
Arzachena 3
Final
Paganese 0
Casertana 2