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Paganese vs Pompei

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
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Match Events

14' Event
El Haddadi A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Paganese and Pompei finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paganese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Paganese
15%
Draws
41%
Pompei
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paganese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Paganese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Paganese a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Paganese Clean Sheet 13%
Pompei Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paganese Pompei
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.27 0.87
Goals Conceded 1 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Pompei
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Pompei vs Paganese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer El Haddadi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Pompei Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paganese 48 / 100
Pompei 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paganese Pompei

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pompei's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Paganese remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Paganese found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Paganese VS Pompei
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 83%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Paganese

(Home)
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3
Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1
Unipomezia
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1
Paganese
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Pompei

(Away)
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Fidelis Andria
1 : 2
Pompei
26 Apr
Pompei
4 : 1
Virtus Francavilla
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)