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Palermo vs Catanzaro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Pohjanpalo J.
Assist: Pierozzi N.
16'
Sub
Peda P. In: Magnani G.
Out: Peda P.
20'
Johnsen D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Palermo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Palermo
15%
Draws
16%
Catanzaro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Palermo come out ahead of Catanzaro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Palermo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Palermo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Palermo, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Palermo Clean Sheet 18%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palermo Catanzaro
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 17 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Serie B
Palermo vs Catanzaro
2:0
May 17, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Palermo
3:0
May 1, 2026 Serie B
Palermo vs Catanzaro
3:2
Oct 25, 2025 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Palermo
1:0
Apr 27, 2025 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Palermo
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pohjanpalo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Modesto R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Catanzaro Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palermo 85 / 100
Catanzaro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palermo Catanzaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palermo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palermo found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Palermo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Catanzaro has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Palermo VS Catanzaro
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Palermo

(Home)
19 Sept
Palermo
2 : 1
Padova
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
07 Sept
Palermo
3 : 1
Sampdoria
03 Sept
Palermo
5 : 2
Mantova
30 Aug
Arezzo
2 : 3
Palermo
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Catanzaro

(Away)
19 Sept
Sampdoria
2 : 1
Catanzaro
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Sudtirol
2 : 0
Catanzaro
30 Aug
Pisa
2 : 1
Catanzaro
21 Aug
Vicenza
3 : 2
Catanzaro
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Monza -
TBD -
Modena 0
Juve Stabia 1
Palermo -
TBD -
Catanzaro 3
Avellino 0
Semi-finals
Monza 4
Juve Stabia 3
Palermo 2
Catanzaro 3
Final
Monza 2
Catanzaro 2