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Palmas vs Nova Conquista

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 game between Palmas and Nova Conquista finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Palmas
20%
Draws
30%
Nova Conquista
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Palmas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Palmas come out ahead of Nova Conquista on wins alone.
  • Palmas are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Palmas Clean Sheet 20%
Nova Conquista Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmas Nova Conquista
Matches Played 33 23
Wins 11 5
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.64 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2022 Tocantinense
Palmas vs Nova Conquista
1:1
Mar 10, 2021 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Palmas
2:2
Mar 8, 2020 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Palmas
0:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmas 42 / 100
Nova Conquista 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmas Nova Conquista

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Palmas scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

Nova Conquista has conceded goals in 74% of their last 23 outings.

Palmas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Palmas VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Palmas

(Home)
07 Mar
Palmas
2 : 5
Bela Vista-TO
21 Feb
Capital FC
1 : 1
Palmas
15 Feb
Palmas
0 : 1
Tocantinopolis
07 Feb
Guarai SC
0 : 0
Palmas
31 Jan
Araguaina
0 : 1
Palmas
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Nova Conquista

(Away)
12 Mar
Araguacema
3 : 1
Nova Conquista
06 Mar
Nova Conquista
2 : 3
Tocantinopolis
02 Mar
Nova Conquista
0 : 1
Capital FC
26 Feb
Tocantins
0 : 2
Nova Conquista
19 Feb
Interporto
3 : 0
Nova Conquista
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 9 7 1 1 28:8 22
2 Capital FC 9 6 2 1 16:6 20
3 Interporto 9 5 4 0 16:5 19
4 Uniao Carmolandense 9 5 3 1 11:8 18
5 Bela Vista-TO 9 3 3 3 12:10 12
6 Palmas 9 2 3 4 16:11 9
7 Nova Conquista 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Araguacema 9 2 2 5 12:14 8
9 Gurupi 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Tocantins 9 0 1 8 4:41 1
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 (Play Offs)