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Pamplona vs Izarra

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Saralegui M.
43' Event
Cemborain X.
45' Event
Saralegui M.

AI Match Summary

Pamplona in this Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2025/2026 tie, finishing 5-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Pamplona
35%
Draws
32%
Izarra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Izarra haven't matched Pamplona's recent run of results.
  • Pamplona are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Pamplona have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pamplona, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Pamplona Clean Sheet 68%
Izarra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pamplona Izarra
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 21 15
Draws 8 14
Losses 3 5
Goals Scored 1.91 1.79
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Pamplona vs Izarra
5:1
May 30, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Izarra vs Pamplona
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Izarra vs Pamplona
0:2
Dec 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Pamplona vs Izarra
2:1
Aug 14, 2023 Club Friendly
Izarra vs Pamplona
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pamplona Compare

Top Goalscorer Saralegui M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cemborain X.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Izarra Compare

Top Goalscorer Madariaga J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pamplona 77 / 100
Izarra 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pamplona Izarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pamplona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pamplona scored in 94% of their last 32 games.

Izarra has conceded goals in 65% of their last 34 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Pamplona went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pamplona VS Izarra
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pamplona

(Home)
20 Jun
Pamplona
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
14 Jun
Real Murcia B
2 : 1
Pamplona
06 Jun
Pamplona
5 : 1
Izarra
30 May
Izarra
1 : 1
Pamplona
23 May
Pamplona
1 : 1
AD San Juan
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Izarra

(Away)
23 Aug
Subiza
2 : 2
Izarra
19 Aug
Izarra
1 : 1
SD Logrones
06 Jun
Pamplona
5 : 1
Izarra
30 May
Izarra
1 : 1
Pamplona
24 May
Izarra
4 : 0
Subiza
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Pamplona 2
AD San Juan 1
Izarra 4
Subiza 1
Final
Pamplona 6
Izarra 2