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Panaderia vs San Miguel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Panaderia host San Miguel in the Tercera RFEF - Group 12. Little to choose between these two on current form. Panaderia have averaged 1.48 scored and 1.03 conceded recently, against San Miguel's 1.16 scored and 1.06 conceded. Past meetings favor Panaderia slightly — 2-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (0.76 - 1.31) back Panaderia to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Panaderia
20%
Draws
40%
San Miguel
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • San Miguel haven't matched Panaderia's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 18%
San Miguel Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panaderia San Miguel
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 14 11
Draws 11 8
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.48 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Panaderia
1:1
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs San Miguel
3:1
Jan 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Panaderia
2:1
Sep 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs San Miguel
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panaderia 36 / 100
San Miguel 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panaderia San Miguel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Miguel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Panaderia scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: San Miguel conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Panaderia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Panaderia VS San Miguel
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Panaderia

(Home)
03 Oct
Panaderia
5 : 2
Anaza
26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0
Panaderia
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3
Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2
Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
Page 1 of 7

San Miguel

(Away)
09 Oct
Anaza
0 : 2
San Miguel
03 Oct
San Miguel
2 : 0
Tenerife C
27 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0
San Miguel
19 Sept
San Miguel
3 : 1
Villa Santa Brigida
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Miguel
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD San Fernando 4 3 0 1 11:2 9
2 Real Union Tenerife 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
3 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 4:2 9
4 San Bartolome 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
5 CD Marino 4 2 1 1 12:6 7
6 Las Palmas C 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
7 San Miguel 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
8 Panaderia 4 2 1 1 10:8 7
9 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
10 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 5:4 6
11 Villa Santa Brigida 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
12 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 6:8 4
13 Estrella 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Anaza 4 1 1 2 5:8 4
15 Union Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 4:6 3
16 CD Laguna 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
18 UD Playas de Sotavento 4 0 1 3 3:15 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 (Play Offs)