Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PAOK vs AEK

Greece Greece

Super League 2025/2026 Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
PAOK Logo

PAOK

1 - 1
FT
AEK Logo

AEK

Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Koita A.
46'
Sub
Kenny J. In: Sanchez J.
Out: Kenny J.
46'
Sub
Varga B. In: Ljubicic R.
Out: Varga B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
PAOK
39%
Draws
31%
AEK
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AEK lately — more wins on the board than PAOK.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
PAOK Clean Sheet 18%
AEK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PAOK AEK
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 8 9
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 2.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 Super League
AEK vs PAOK
3:0
Feb 15, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
0:0
Oct 19, 2025 Super League
AEK vs PAOK
0:2
May 11, 2025 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PAOK Compare

Top Goalscorer Mythou A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Jovic L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PAOK 31 / 100
AEK 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PAOK AEK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PAOK found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: PAOK stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

AEK let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

PAOK VS AEK
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

PAOK

(Home)
30 Jul
PAOK
2 : 0
Dynamo Kyiv
23 Jul
Dynamo Kyiv
2 : 3
PAOK
11 Jul
PAOK
2 : 3
Twente
07 Jul
PAOK
3 : 2
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
PAOK
4 : 0
Westerlo
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AEK

(Away)
29 Jul
AEK
1 : 2
Samsunspor
26 Jul
Zwolle
2 : 3
AEK
18 Jul
Groningen
1 : 2
AEK
15 Jul
Vitesse
0 : 0
AEK
12 Jul
De Graafschap
1 : 2
AEK
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1AEK32219257:2072
2Olympiacos Piraeus32199451:1766
3PAOK321810459:2564
4Panathinaikos321410847:3352
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)