Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PAOK vs Celta Vigo

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
PAOK Logo

PAOK

1 - 2
FT
Celta Vigo Logo

Celta Vigo

Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Aspas I.
Assist: Roman M.
43' Event
Swedberg W.
Assist: Aspas I.
61'
Sub
Mingueza O. In: Rueda J.
Out: Mingueza O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Celta Vigo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
PAOK
35%
Draws
37%
Celta Vigo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Celta Vigo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Celta Vigo have managed 1.46 goals a game lately — PAOK are scoring more at 1.78.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on PAOK taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Celta Vigo, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Celta Vigo have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
PAOK Clean Sheet 18%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PAOK Celta Vigo
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.78 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs PAOK
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 Europa League
PAOK vs Celta Vigo
1:2
Oct 2, 2025 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs PAOK
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PAOK Compare

Top Goalscorer Jeremejeff A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Celta Vigo Compare

Top Goalscorer Aspas I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Swedberg W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PAOK 36 / 100
Celta Vigo 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PAOK Celta Vigo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PAOK's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Celta Vigo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: PAOK stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PAOK VS Celta Vigo
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PAOK

(Home)
23 Aug
PAOK
4 : 0
Levadiakos
20 Aug
PAOK
1 : 1
Brann
13 Aug
Anderlecht
3 : 2
PAOK
06 Aug
PAOK
0 : 1
Anderlecht
30 Jul
PAOK
2 : 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Page 1 of 6

Celta Vigo

(Away)
22 Aug
Valencia
0 : 0
Celta Vigo
08 Aug
Napoli
1 : 1
Celta Vigo
05 Aug
Sassuolo
1 : 4
Celta Vigo
29 Jul
Celta Vigo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
25 Jul
Celta Vigo
1 : 0
Gijon
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3