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Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Dahite J.
17' Event
Kepo A.
29'

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Caledonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Papua New Guinea
15%
Draws
36%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • New Caledonia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Papua New Guinea a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 68%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Papua New Guinea New Caledonia
Matches Played 32 26
Wins 13 15
Draws 7 2
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.66 2.62
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
1:2
Nov 11, 2025 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
0:0
Oct 10, 2024 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Papua New Guinea
3:1
Oct 11, 2023 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
1:3
Mar 21, 2022 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Papua New Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Kepo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

New Caledonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Dahite J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Read W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea 77 / 100
New Caledonia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Papua New Guinea New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Papua New Guinea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Papua New Guinea scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Away concern: New Caledonia has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

New Caledonia let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

Papua New Guinea VS New Caledonia
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Papua New Guinea

(Home)
30 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 1
Solomon Islands
27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0
Papua New Guinea
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
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New Caledonia

(Away)
30 Sept
Fiji
2 : 1
New Caledonia
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
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