Sport Picks
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
World
World Cup 2018 
Match Events
13'
13'
Foster M.
33'
33'
Gunemba R.
51'
51'
Foster M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 8-0, with Papua New Guinea advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Papua New Guinea come out ahead of Samoa on wins alone.
- 34% — that's where the model lands on Papua New Guinea taking it.
- Papua New Guinea have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Papua New Guinea, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 4 times recently and Papua New Guinea have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 19%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Papua New Guinea | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 1 |
| Losses | 12 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.65 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.74 | 3.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.35 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 22, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
1:2
Jul 8, 2019 Pacific Games
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
0:6
Jun 5, 2016 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa
8:0
May 20, 2004 World Championship
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
1:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Papua New Guinea Compare
Top Goalscorer Gunemba R.
3 Goals Assists Leader Foster M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.18
Samoa Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Papua New Guinea 85 / 100
Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Papua New Guinea Samoa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Papua New Guinea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Papua New Guinea's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Defensive concern: Samoa conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 5.50 goals when they meet.
Samoa's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Papua New Guinea VS Samoa
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 3.2
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 80%
38% Over 3.5 40%
Recent Form & Match History
Papua New Guinea
(Home) 30 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 1 Solomon Islands
27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0 Papua New Guinea
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2 New Caledonia
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1 Vanuatu
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3 Vanuatu
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30 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 1 Solomon Islands
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2 New Caledonia
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1 Vanuatu
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3 Vanuatu
20 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 0 Fiji
Page 1 of 4
Samoa
(Away) 18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8 New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3 Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1 Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2 Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2 Samoa
Page 1 of 6
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1 Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2 Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2 Samoa
16 Jun
Tahiti
2 : 0 Samoa
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4 Samoa
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 5 |
| 2 | New Caledonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9:2 | 5 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7:3 | 5 |
| 4 | Samoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:19 | 0 |
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 5 |
| 2 | New Caledonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9:2 | 5 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7:3 | 5 |
| 4 | Samoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:19 | 0 |
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Solomon Islands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 3 | Fiji | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Vanuatu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Solomon Islands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 3 | Fiji | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Vanuatu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup 2016 (Play Offs)
