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Paraiso EC vs Alvorada

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2005
Paraiso EC Logo

Paraiso EC

4 - 2
FT
Alvorada Logo

Alvorada

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Paraiso EC in this Campeonato Tocantinense 2005 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paraiso EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Paraiso EC
35%
Draws
35%
Alvorada
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alvorada lately — more wins on the board than Paraiso EC.
  • Model gives Alvorada a 35% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • History favors Alvorada here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Paraiso EC Clean Sheet 15%
Alvorada Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraiso EC Alvorada
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.83 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 Tocantinense 2
Paraiso EC vs Alvorada
2:2
Nov 8, 2025 Tocantinense 2
Alvorada vs Paraiso EC
2:0
Apr 9, 2008 Tocantinense
Alvorada vs Paraiso EC
2:0
Mar 4, 2008 Tocantinense
Paraiso EC vs Alvorada
0:1
Apr 2, 2006 Tocantinense
Alvorada vs Paraiso EC
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraiso EC 23 / 100
Alvorada 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraiso EC Alvorada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alvorada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alvorada let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Paraiso EC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Paraiso EC scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Paraiso EC VS Alvorada
1.67 Goals Scored 1.25
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
83% Over 2.5 88%
67% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paraiso EC

(Home)
15 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Alvorada
08 Nov
Alvorada
2 : 0
Paraiso EC
02 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Central Tocantinense
18 Oct
Guarai SC
4 : 0
Paraiso EC
12 Oct
Paraiso EC
3 : 1
Araguaia (TO)
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Alvorada

(Away)
29 Nov
Guarai SC
2 : 2
Alvorada
22 Nov
Alvorada
3 : 4
Guarai SC
15 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Alvorada
08 Nov
Alvorada
2 : 0
Paraiso EC
25 Oct
Uniao de Palmas
1 : 1
Alvorada
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colinas 18 12 1 5 31:17 37
2 Araguaina 18 10 3 5 39:18 33
3 Gurupi 18 9 4 5 41:16 31
4 Palmas 18 9 4 5 31:18 31
5 Interporto 18 8 5 5 29:29 29
6 Tocantinopolis 18 6 6 6 29:24 24
7 CA Tocantinense 18 5 7 6 27:35 22
8 Paraiso EC 18 5 5 8 19:33 20
9 Miracema EC 18 3 5 10 28:44 14
10 Alvorada 18 2 2 14 17:57 8
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2005 (Second stage)