Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Parana vs Nacional PR

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 Estádio Durival Britto e Silva, Curitiba
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Marlon Silva
Own Goal
12' Event
Palacios J.
43' Event
Thiago Dombroski

AI Match Summary

Parana in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Parana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Parana
35%
Draws
20%
Nacional PR
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Parana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Parana have won more games recently than Nacional PR.
  • Model gives Parana a 45% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paranaense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Parana have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Parana Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parana Nacional PR
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 9 11
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.3 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Nacional PR
3:1
May 4, 2024 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Nacional PR
1:0
Feb 27, 2015 Paranaense
Parana vs Nacional PR
3:1
Mar 10, 2013 Paranaense
Nacional PR vs Parana
0:1
Jan 20, 2013 Paranaense
Parana vs Nacional PR
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parana Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Dombroski
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Bueno
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.96

Nacional PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parana 95 / 100
Nacional PR 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parana Nacional PR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Parana remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Parana scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Nacional PR conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Parana VS Nacional PR
2.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.33
88% Over 1.5 33%
50% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Parana

(Home)
27 Sept
Parana
3 : 0
Paranavai-PR
21 Sept
Londrina B
2 : 2
Parana
13 Sept
Azuriz
0 : 0
Parana
05 Sept
Parana
2 : 1
FC Cascavel
29 Aug
Athletico-PR B
1 : 2
Parana
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Nacional PR

(Away)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)