Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Parana vs Nacional PR

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 Estádio Durival Britto e Silva, Curitiba
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Marlon Silva
Own Goal
12' Event
Palacios J.
43' Event
Thiago Dombroski

AI Match Summary

Parana in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Parana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Parana
6%
Draws
4%
Nacional PR
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Parana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Parana have won more games recently than Nacional PR.
  • Model gives Parana a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paranaense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Parana have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Parana Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parana Nacional PR
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 11
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 2.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Nacional PR
3:1
May 4, 2024 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Nacional PR
1:0
Feb 27, 2015 Paranaense
Parana vs Nacional PR
3:1
Mar 10, 2013 Paranaense
Nacional PR vs Parana
0:1
Jan 20, 2013 Paranaense
Parana vs Nacional PR
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parana Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Dombroski
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Bueno
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Nacional PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parana 95 / 100
Nacional PR 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parana Nacional PR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parana found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Nacional PR let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Parana stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Parana VS Nacional PR
2.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Parana

(Home)
06 Jun
Parana
0 : 1
Paranavai-PR
30 May
Paranavai-PR
1 : 1
Parana
23 May
Parana
2 : 1
Araucaria
17 May
Araucaria
0 : 2
Parana
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
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Nacional PR

(Away)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Parana972014:323
2Patriotas961216:919
3Laranja Mecanica94237:914
4Araucaria933313:1412
5Rio Branco PR925216:1411
6Paranavai-PR931510:1110
7Nacional PR92439:1210
8Toledo92436:1010
9Batel923410:109
10Prudentopolis91174:134
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)