Sport Picks

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Paranoa vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Valmir Campelo Bezerra (Bezerrao), Gama
Paranoa Logo

Paranoa

0 - 6
FT
Samambaia Logo

Samambaia

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Matheus
40' Event
Ian
42' Event
Victor Xavier
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Samambaia in this Brasiliense matchup, with the score ending 0-6 — backing the pre-match view that favored Samambaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Paranoa
15%
Draws
65%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paranoa lately — more wins on the board than Samambaia.
  • Samambaia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paranoa Samambaia
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 14 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.28 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Samambaia
0:6
Jan 29, 2025 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Samambaia
2:0
Jan 20, 2024 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Paranoa
1:2
Mar 18, 2023 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Paranoa
2:3
Feb 15, 2018 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Paranoa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paranoa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ian
2 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paranoa 10 / 100
Samambaia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paranoa Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Paranoa scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Defensive concern: Samambaia conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Paranoa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paranoa VS Samambaia
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paranoa

(Home)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)