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Paraty vs Mesquita - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Paraty Logo

Paraty

3 - 2
FT
Mesquita Logo

Mesquita

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
De Oliveira Casanova M.
34' Event
Dias Reis M. P.
38' Event
Ferreira Rodrigues L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Carioca C 2025 game between Paraty and Mesquita finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paraty.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Paraty
15%
Draws
85%
Mesquita
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mesquita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

0% / Low Confidence
  • Mesquita haven't matched Paraty's recent run of results.
  • 0% — that's where the model lands on Paraty taking it.
  • Regular Carioca C 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Paraty Clean Sheet 20%
Mesquita Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraty Mesquita
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 21
Goals Scored 1.52 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.55 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Mesquita
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer Dias Reis M. P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader De Oliveira Casanova M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Mesquita Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira Rodrigues L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fabio Carioca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraty 49 / 100
Mesquita 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraty Mesquita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paraty Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mesquita's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Mesquita's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Paraty's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Paraty VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Paraty

(Home)
05 Oct
Paraty
0 : 4
FC Rio de Janeiro
01 Oct
Buzios
3 : 2
Paraty
27 Sept
Paraty
0 : 3
Paduano EC
21 Sept
7 de Abril
1 : 0
Paraty
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
Page 1 of 6

Mesquita

(Away)
10 Aug
Mesquita
0 : 3
Caac Brazil
03 Aug
Santa Cruz RJ
3 : 0
Mesquita
27 Jul
Mesquita
0 : 3
EC Vera Cruz
13 Jul
Angra dos Reis
3 : 0
Mesquita
07 Jul
Mesquita
0 : 3
Riostrense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paraty 12 9 1 2 33:11 28
2 Santa Cruz RJ 12 8 3 1 39:14 27
3 Riostrense 12 8 2 2 29:11 26
4 Uniao Central 12 7 3 2 34:18 24
5 Juventus RJ 12 7 3 2 24:9 24
6 EC Vera Cruz 12 6 2 4 18:11 20
7 Angra dos Reis 12 6 1 5 24:21 19
8 Rio Barra 11 4 0 7 12:24 12
9 Buzios 12 4 0 8 16:33 12
10 Duque Caxiense 12 3 1 8 15:19 10
11 Caac Brazil 12 3 0 9 10:35 9
12 Mesquita 12 2 1 9 8:28 7
13 Barcelona EC 11 1 1 9 5:33 4
Promotion - Carioca C 2025 (Play Offs)