Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Parma vs AS Roma

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Malen D.
Assist: Dybala P.
47' Event
Strefezza G.
Assist: Nicolussi Caviglia H.
48'
Strefezza G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 2025/2026 game between Parma and AS Roma finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Roma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Parma
30%
Draws
51%
AS Roma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AS Roma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Parma haven't matched AS Roma's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans AS Roma's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors AS Roma here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Parma Clean Sheet 12%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parma AS Roma
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 0.75 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie A
Parma vs AS Roma
2:3
Oct 29, 2025 Serie A
AS Roma vs Parma
2:1
Feb 16, 2025 Serie A
Parma vs AS Roma
0:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie A
AS Roma vs Parma
5:0
Mar 14, 2021 Serie A
Parma vs AS Roma
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parma Compare

Top Goalscorer Strefezza G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Keita M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

AS Roma Compare

Top Goalscorer Malen D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rensch D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parma 10 / 100
AS Roma 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parma AS Roma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Roma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Parma's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: AS Roma conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Parma has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Parma VS AS Roma
0.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Parma

(Home)
06 Sept
Parma
1 : 1
Monza
01 Sept
Parma
0 : 2
Cremonese
29 Aug
Juventus
2 : 0
Parma
22 Aug
Parma
0 : 1
Cagliari
14 Aug
Parma
2 : 0
Catania
Page 1 of 6

AS Roma

(Away)
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
24 Aug
AS Roma
4 : 0
Fiorentina
15 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 2
AS Roma
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)