Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tammeka Tartu

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Aloe K.
9'
Lang T.
19' Event
Limberg M.
Assist: Kapper S.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Parnu JK Vaprus and Tammeka Tartu finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Parnu JK Vaprus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Parnu JK Vaprus
15%
Draws
42%
Tammeka Tartu
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tammeka Tartu come out ahead of Parnu JK Vaprus on wins alone.
  • Parnu JK Vaprus are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%
Tammeka Tartu Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus Tammeka Tartu
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 4 3
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tammeka Tartu
5:1
Jun 13, 2026 Meistriliiga
Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus
0:0
Apr 18, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tammeka Tartu
0:0
Sep 16, 2025 Meistriliiga
Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:4
Aug 15, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tammeka Tartu
8:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Limberg M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Orm R.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Tammeka Tartu Compare

Top Goalscorer Marin P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 40 / 100
Tammeka Tartu 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus Tammeka Tartu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Parnu JK Vaprus's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Tammeka Tartu's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Difficult form: Tammeka Tartu registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus VS Tammeka Tartu
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Home)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
Page 1 of 6

Tammeka Tartu

(Away)
20 Sept
Tammeka Tartu
1 : 3
Kalju
17 Sept
Levadia
6 : 0
Tammeka Tartu
13 Sept
Kuressaare
1 : 3
Tammeka Tartu
09 Sept
Tammeka Tartu
0 : 2
Paide Linnameeskond
06 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)