Sport Picks

Estonia

Estonian Cup 2025/2026 Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu

Parnu JK Vaprus

2 - 1

Tartu JK Welco

Our Tip

Match Events

27'

Sub

Veensalu E. In: Petmanson J.

Out: Veensalu E.

27'

Timothy L.

41'

Aloe K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Parnu JK Vaprus in this Estonian Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Parnu JK Vaprus

Draws

90%

Tartu JK Welco

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Tartu JK Welco lately — more wins on the board than Parnu JK Vaprus.
Win probability leans Tartu JK Welco's way, sitting at 90%.
Tartu JK Welco arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Parnu JK Vaprus, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Parnu JK Vaprus have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 69%

Over 4.5 Goals 31%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%

Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%

Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Parnu JK Vaprus	Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	12	16
Draws	3	6
Losses	14	7
Goals Scored	1.63	3.5
Goals Conceded	2	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	3.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Estonian Cup

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tartu JK Welco

2:1

Oct 19, 2019 Esiliiga

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tartu JK Welco

3:0

Jul 4, 2019 Esiliiga

Tartu JK Welco vs Parnu JK Vaprus

1:2

May 9, 2019 Esiliiga

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tartu JK Welco

5:1

Apr 4, 2019 Esiliiga

Tartu JK Welco vs Parnu JK Vaprus

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Aloe K.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lepik M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Petmanson J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 3.18

Avg xA / game 1.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 10 / 100

Tartu JK Welco 83 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Parnu JK Vaprus Tartu JK Welco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAR Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Parnu JK Vaprus scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Tartu JK Welco let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Parnu JK Vaprus remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus VS Tartu JK Welco

1.63 Goals Scored 3.5

2 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 100%

75% Over 2.5 75%

63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Home)

21 Jul

Tabasalu Ulasabat

1 : 4

Parnu JK Vaprus

18 Jul

Narva

3 : 1

Parnu JK Vaprus

11 Jul

Parnu JK Vaprus

5 : 1

Tammeka Tartu

04 Jul

Paide Linnameeskond

3 : 1

Parnu JK Vaprus

26 Jun

Parnu JK Vaprus

1 : 0

Kuressaare

Page 1 of 6

Tartu JK Welco

(Away)

23 Jul

Rumori Calcio II

0 : 12

Tartu JK Welco

18 Jul

Tartu JK Welco

0 : 2

FC Tallinn

13 Jul

Maardu Linnameeskond

1 : 8

Tartu JK Welco

02 Jul

Tartu JK Welco

2 : 2

Viimsi JK

21 Jun

Tartu JK Welco

5 : 2

Nomme Utd U21

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/64-finals

Flora-

TBD-

Kohvile-

TBD-

Helm-

Levadia-

TBD-

Flora U18-

TBD-

Flora Tallinn U21-

Tabasalu Ulasabat-

TBD-

Eston Villa-

Harju JK Laagri-

TBD-

TransferWise-

Tallinna Wolves6

Soccernet4

TBD-

Raasiku Joker-

Nomme Utd-

TBD-

Harju JK Laagri III-

Saue JK Laagri-

TBD-

Maksatransport-

Tartu JK Welco 2-

TBD-

Narva-

Lootus JK Jarve-

TBD-

JK Arsenal2

Rae Spordikool4

FC Tallinn-

TBD-

Zealot Sporting-

Johvi Phoenix-

TBD-

Kose II-

TBD-

Kalju-

Viimsi JK-

TBD-

TalTech JK-

Tamper-

TBD-

Rumori Calcio-

Kose-

TBD-

Kuressaare-

TBD-

Paide Linnameeskond-

Flora U19-

TBD-

Vastseliina Tannem-

Tammeka Tartu-

TBD-

Tabasalu-

Tartu Kalev1

Elva2

TBD-

Legion-

Viimsi Lovid-

TBD-

Tallinna Smsraha-

Tallinna Kalev III-

TBD-

EstHam United-

Hiiumaa-

TBD-

Tallinna Kalev-

Tallinna FC Zapoos-

TBD-

FC Hell Hunt2

FC Lootos Polva0

Raplamaa1

Saku Sporting5

Marjamaa Kompanii4

Kubik0

Parnu JK Vaprus-

TBD-

Olympic Tallinn0

Tulevik6

Jarva-Jaani-

TBD-

Keila JK5

Kallaste United2

Maardu Aliens-

TBD-

JK Poseidon-

Tallinna Kalev U216

Vana Hea Puur0

Laanemaa Haapsalu2

Kohtla-Jarve Linnameeskond1

Tartu JK Welco16

Kuusalu Kalev0

TBD-

Tartu Helios-

Arukula Vigri-

TBD-

Kristiine-

1/32-finals

Flora-

TBD-

Kohvile0

Helm4

Levadia-

TBD-

Flora U181

Flora Tallinn U2112

Tabasalu Ulasabat13

Eston Villa0

Harju JK Laagri26

TransferWise0

Tallinna Wolves3

Raasiku Joker4

Nomme Utd5

Harju JK Laagri III1

Saue JK Laagri6

Maksatransport1

Tartu JK Welco 20

Narva8

Lootus JK Jarve1

Rae Spordikool10

FC Tallinn7

Zealot Sporting1

Johvi Phoenix-

Kose II-

TBD-

Kalju-

Viimsi JK7

TalTech JK1

Tamper4

Rumori Calcio2

Kose0

Kuressaare7

TBD-

Paide Linnameeskond-

Flora U19-

Vastseliina Tannem-

Tammeka Tartu6

Tabasalu0

Elva3

Legion0

Viimsi Lovid0

Tallinna Smsraha7

Tallinna Kalev III9

EstHam United0

Hiiumaa0

Tallinna Kalev3

Tallinna FC Zapoos7

FC Hell Hunt0

Saku Sporting3

Marjamaa Kompanii2

Parnu JK Vaprus13

Tulevik0

Jarva-Jaani1

Keila JK4

Maardu Aliens1

JK Poseidon4

Tallinna Kalev U212

Laanemaa Haapsalu0

Tartu JK Welco3

Tartu Helios0

Arukula Vigri0

Kristiine4

1/16-finals

Flora14

Helm0

Levadia4

Flora Tallinn U210

Tabasalu Ulasabat0

Harju JK Laagri3

Raasiku Joker1

Nomme Utd4

Saue JK Laagri0

Narva4

Rae Spordikool0

FC Tallinn9

Johvi Phoenix1

Kalju6

Viimsi JK4

Tamper1

Kuressaare1

Paide Linnameeskond2

Flora U191

Tammeka Tartu8

Elva3

Tallinna Smsraha2

Tallinna Kalev III1

Tallinna Kalev8

Tallinna FC Zapoos3

Saku Sporting0

Parnu JK Vaprus9

Keila JK0

JK Poseidon1

Tallinna Kalev U210

Tartu JK Welco8

Kristiine0

1/8-finals

Flora3

Levadia1

Harju JK Laagri0

Nomme Utd1

Narva6

FC Tallinn0

Kalju0

Viimsi JK1

Paide Linnameeskond3

Tammeka Tartu0

Elva1

Tallinna Kalev2

Tallinna FC Zapoos2

Parnu JK Vaprus4

JK Poseidon0

Tartu JK Welco6

Quarter-finals

Flora3

Nomme Utd1

Narva4

Viimsi JK3

Paide Linnameeskond6

Tallinna Kalev0

Parnu JK Vaprus2

Tartu JK Welco1

Semi-finals

Flora1

Narva0

Paide Linnameeskond2

Parnu JK Vaprus0

Final

Flora5

Paide Linnameeskond1

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia

Parnu JK Vaprus

Tartu JK Welco

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Tartu JK Welco Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

Tartu JK Welco

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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