Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paro vs Abu Muslim

Asia Asia

AFC Challenge League Changlimithang Stadium, Thimphu
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Mishima Y.
84' Event
Baldeh A.
88'
Hanifi M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Paro
25%
Draws
35%
Abu Muslim
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Paro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paro lately — more wins on the board than Abu Muslim.
  • Win probability leans Paro's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Paro have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paro, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Paro Clean Sheet 68%
Abu Muslim Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paro Abu Muslim
Matches Played 29 2
Wins 22 0
Draws 3 0
Losses 4 2
Goals Scored 3.97 0
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Paro vs Abu Muslim
2:0
Aug 12, 2025 AFC Challenge League
Paro vs Abu Muslim
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paro Compare

Top Goalscorer Mishima Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baldeh A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.41

Abu Muslim Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paro 95 / 100
Abu Muslim 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paro Abu Muslim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Paro scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Abu Muslim let in goals in 100% of their last 2 matches.

Recent resilience: Paro stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Paro VS Abu Muslim
3.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 0%
88% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Paro

(Home)
12 Sept
Transport United
2 : 4
Paro
08 Sept
Ugyen Academy
0 : 10
Paro
26 Aug
Paro
7 : 0
Tsirang
20 Aug
Paro
1 : 0
RTC
11 Aug
Paro
2 : 0
Abu Muslim
Page 1 of 6

Abu Muslim

(Away)
11 Aug
Paro
2 : 0
Abu Muslim
12 Aug
Paro
1 : 0
Abu Muslim

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Dordoi Bishkek 1
Homs Al Fidaa 2
Fortis 1
Muras United 0
Al-Ittihad Aleppo 1
Bangladesh Police 0
Maziya 0
Regar-TadAZ 3
Paro 2
Abu Muslim 0
Taiwan Steel 3
Central Stallions 2
FC Ulaanbaatar 1
Hang Yuen 2
Ezra 1
Yangon United 2
Kasuka 2
Karketu Dili 1