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Pasaia vs Lagun Onak

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Odriozola U.
90' Event
Oihan C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Pasaia
30%
Draws
47%
Lagun Onak
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagun Onak lately — more wins on the board than Pasaia.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Lagun Onak taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 14%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia Lagun Onak
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 15
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.8 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Lagun Onak
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Pasaia
2:0
Apr 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Pasaia
1:2
Dec 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Lagun Onak
3:3
Jan 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Lagun Onak
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pasaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Oihan C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Lagun Onak Compare

Top Goalscorer Odriozola U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 10 / 100
Lagun Onak 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia Lagun Onak

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagun Onak Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagun Onak's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Pasaia's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Pasaia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS Lagun Onak
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
25 Apr
SCD Durango
0 : 0
Pasaia
15 Apr
Pasaia
3 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
12 Apr
Zamudio
7 : 0
Pasaia
Page 1 of 6

Lagun Onak

(Away)
24 May
Derio
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
17 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 0
Derio
09 May
Leioa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
03 May
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Eibar C
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)