Sport Picks
Match Events
29'
29'
Arrizabalaga Agirre P.
45'
45'
Lasa Sanz J.
51'
51'
Learte I.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Pasaia and UD Aretxabaleta finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pasaia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pasaia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Pasaia haven't matched UD Aretxabaleta's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Pasaia's way, sitting at 42%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 13%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Pasaia | UD Aretxabaleta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.94 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.65 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs UD Aretxabaleta
3:2
Dec 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia
2:1
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs UD Aretxabaleta
1:3
Apr 3, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Pasaia Compare
Top Goalscorer Arrizabalaga Agirre P.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
UD Aretxabaleta Compare
Top Goalscorer Lasa Sanz J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Erana U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Pasaia 40 / 100
UD Aretxabaleta 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Pasaia UD Aretxabaleta
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
UD Aretxabaleta has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Pasaia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Pasaia scored in 55% of their last 31 games.
Scoring Trends
Pasaia VS UD Aretxabaleta
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Pasaia
(Home) 03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0 Santurtzi
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2 Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2 Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1 Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2 SD Erandio
Page 1 of 7
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0 Santurtzi
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2 Real Sociedad C
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2 SD Erandio
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1 Anorga
15 Apr
Pasaia
3 : 2 UD Aretxabaleta
Page 1 of 4
UD Aretxabaleta
(Away) 03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2 UD Aretxabaleta
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2 Derio
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0 UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0 Beasain
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1 UD Aretxabaleta
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2 UD Aretxabaleta
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0 UD Aretxabaleta
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1 UD Aretxabaleta
03 May
Santurtzi
2 : 1 UD Aretxabaleta
15 Apr
Pasaia
3 : 2 UD Aretxabaleta
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 70:29 | 78 |
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50:34 | 61 |
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 54:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Touring KE | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad C | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48:39 | 55 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37:27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 42:41 | 54 |
| 9 | Alaves C | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57:40 | 53 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56:61 | 45 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35:36 | 44 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32:45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44:53 | 36 |
| 14 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Anorga | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37:59 | 34 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 42:59 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30:60 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26:49 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
