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Paterno vs AS Acireale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
D'Aloia M.
60' Event
Zinna M.
90' Event
Samb F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Paterno and AS Acireale finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paterno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Paterno
30%
Draws
47%
AS Acireale
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AS Acireale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • AS Acireale carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans AS Acireale's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Paterno Clean Sheet 16%
AS Acireale Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paterno AS Acireale
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 7
Draws 5 11
Losses 21 12
Goals Scored 0.67 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.2 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs AS Acireale
2:1
Nov 5, 2025 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Paterno
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Paterno
0:0
Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs AS Acireale
1:0
Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs AS Acireale
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paterno Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Aloia M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zinna M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

AS Acireale Compare

Top Goalscorer Samb F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paterno 19 / 100
AS Acireale 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paterno AS Acireale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Acireale Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Acireale has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Away concern: AS Acireale has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Paterno's goal record stands at 47% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Paterno VS AS Acireale
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paterno

(Home)
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Reggina
2 : 0
Paterno
12 Apr
Paterno
0 : 0
Milazzo
02 Apr
Sambiase
3 : 1
Paterno
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AS Acireale

(Away)
10 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
03 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
26 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
USD Ragusa
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
12 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
Nissa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)