Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Patriotas vs Nacional PR

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

78' Event
Ruan Lima
90' Event
Andre Henrique

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Patriotas
30%
Draws
29%
Nacional PR
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Patriotas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Patriotas come out ahead of Nacional PR on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Patriotas's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Patriotas have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Patriotas, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Patriotas Clean Sheet 20%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Patriotas Nacional PR
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Nacional PR
1:0
May 2, 2026 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Patriotas
0:0
Mar 28, 2026 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Nacional PR
2:0
Jun 21, 2025 Paranaense 2
Patriotas vs Nacional PR
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Patriotas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Patriotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Lima
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Nacional PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Andre Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patriotas 67 / 100
Nacional PR 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Patriotas Nacional PR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Patriotas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Patriotas found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Nacional PR has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Patriotas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Patriotas VS Nacional PR
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Patriotas

(Home)
24 May
Patriotas
0 : 2
Paranavai-PR
16 May
Paranavai-PR
1 : 2
Patriotas
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Parana
2 : 1
Patriotas
Page 1 of 6

Nacional PR

(Away)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Toledo 0
Galo Maringa 10
Nacional PR 2
Patriotas 1
Laranja Mecanica 4
Paranavai-PR 5
Batel 2
Foz do Iguacu 5
Semi-finals
Galo Maringa 7
Nacional PR 2
Paranavai-PR 2
Foz do Iguacu 3
Final
Galo Maringa 5
Foz do Iguacu 3