Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Leo Santos

AI Match Summary

Guarani-MG in this Mineiro 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarani-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Patrocinense
30%
Draws
34%
Guarani-MG
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Patrocinense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guarani-MG lately — more wins on the board than Patrocinense.
  • Win probability leans Patrocinense's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Patrocinense Clean Sheet 68%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Patrocinense Guarani-MG
Matches Played 29 37
Wins 8 20
Draws 6 7
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Mineiro 2
Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG
0:1
Jun 6, 2026 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Patrocinense
0:2
Feb 17, 2019 Mineiro
Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Patrocinense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Guarani-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Santos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patrocinense 46 / 100
Guarani-MG 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Patrocinense Guarani-MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani-MG has conceded goals in 76% of their last 37 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Patrocinense's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Patrocinense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Patrocinense VS Guarani-MG
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Patrocinense

(Home)
19 Jul
Patrocinense
1 : 4
Democrata SL
12 Jul
Mamore
1 : 0
Patrocinense
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Caldense
1 : 2
Patrocinense
28 Jun
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Uberaba
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Guarani-MG

(Away)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Uberaba1072117:923
2Boa1052312:917
3Mamore103348:912
4Patrocinense103349:912
5Guarani-MG1033412:1412
6Caldense101366:146
Promotion - Mineiro 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2027 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Valeriodoce105509:420
2Democrata SL1052319:1017
3Aymores1044217:916
4Villa Nova AC1042417:1214
5Coimbra Esporte Clube1024412:1210
6Ipatinga101186:33-2
Promotion - Mineiro 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2027 (Main)