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Stadium Background

Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Leo Santos

AI Match Summary

Guarani-MG in this Mineiro 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarani-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Patrocinense
15%
Draws
59%
Guarani-MG
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarani-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guarani-MG lately — more wins on the board than Patrocinense.
  • Win probability leans Guarani-MG's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Patrocinense Clean Sheet 23%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Patrocinense Guarani-MG
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.67 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Mineiro 2
Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG
0:1
Jun 6, 2026 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Patrocinense
0:2
Feb 17, 2019 Mineiro
Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Patrocinense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Guarani-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Santos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patrocinense 24 / 100
Guarani-MG 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Patrocinense Guarani-MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani-MG has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Patrocinense's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Patrocinense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Patrocinense VS Guarani-MG
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Patrocinense

(Home)
25 Jul
Democrata SL
2 : 1
Patrocinense
19 Jul
Patrocinense
1 : 4
Democrata SL
12 Jul
Mamore
1 : 0
Patrocinense
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Caldense
1 : 2
Patrocinense
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Guarani-MG

(Away)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uberaba 10 7 2 1 17:9 23
2 Boa 10 5 2 3 12:9 17
3 Mamore 10 3 3 4 8:9 12
4 Patrocinense 10 3 3 4 9:9 12
5 Guarani-MG 10 3 3 4 12:14 12
6 Caldense 10 1 3 6 6:14 6
Promotion - Mineiro 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2027 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valeriodoce 10 5 5 0 9:4 20
2 Democrata SL 10 5 2 3 19:10 17
3 Aymores 10 4 4 2 17:9 16
4 Villa Nova AC 10 4 2 4 17:12 14
5 Coimbra Esporte Clube 10 2 4 4 12:12 10
6 Ipatinga 10 1 1 8 6:33 -2
Promotion - Mineiro 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2027 (Main)