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Stadium Background

Pau vs Guingamp

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Nouste Camp, Pau
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sadik O.
35' Event
Mafouta L.
Assist: Kielt S.
54' Event
Dong K.
Assist: Glossoa N.

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Pau
35%
Draws
32%
Guingamp
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pau lately — more wins on the board than Guingamp.
  • Model gives Pau a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Pau Clean Sheet 17%
Guingamp Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Guingamp
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 5 8
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.19 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Guingamp
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Pau
2:2
May 10, 2025 Ligue 2
Pau vs Guingamp
1:3
Oct 18, 2024 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Pau
0:1
Apr 27, 2024 Ligue 2
Pau vs Guingamp
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Dong K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Guingamp Compare

Top Goalscorer Mafouta L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 41 / 100
Guingamp 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Guingamp

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (26 games).

Guingamp let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Pau remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Guingamp
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
21 Aug
Pau
0 : 1
Nancy
14 Aug
Dijon
0 : 1
Pau
08 Aug
Pau
0 : 1
Annecy
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Guingamp

(Away)
05 Sept
Reims
2 : 2
Guingamp
29 Aug
Guingamp
3 : 3
Nantes
21 Aug
Sochaux
1 : 0
Guingamp
14 Aug
Guingamp
1 : 0
Boulogne
08 Aug
Metz
2 : 1
Guingamp
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)