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Paulinense vs Independente SP Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Breno Liborge
90'
Iury

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Paulinense
15%
Draws
42%
Independente SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paulinense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Independente SP have won more games recently than Paulinense.
  • Win probability leans Paulinense's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Independente SP arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Paulinense Clean Sheet 10%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paulinense Independente SP
Matches Played 14 33
Wins 7 20
Draws 0 4
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 0.93 2.27
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Paulinense
2:1
Jul 12, 2026 Paulista B
Paulinense vs Independente SP
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paulinense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Liborge
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paulinense 34 / 100
Independente SP 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paulinense Independente SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paulinense found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (14 games).

Independente SP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Paulinense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paulinense VS Independente SP
1.13 Goals Scored 3.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paulinense

(Home)
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
12 Jul
Paulinense
0 : 1
Independente SP
05 Jul
Paulinense
2 : 0
Sao Carlos
27 Jun
Sao Carlos
0 : 1
Paulinense
20 Jun
Guarulhos
1 : 2
Paulinense
Page 1 of 3

Independente SP

(Away)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3