Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paulinense vs Independente SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Breno Liborge
90'
Iury

AI Match Summary

Independente SP in this Paulista B tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Paulinense
6%
Draws
90%
Independente SP
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Independente SP have won more games recently than Paulinense.
  • Win probability leans Independente SP's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Independente SP arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Paulinense Clean Sheet 10%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paulinense Independente SP
Matches Played 14 29
Wins 7 18
Draws 0 2
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.25 3.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 3.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Paulinense
2:1
Jul 12, 2026 Paulista B
Paulinense vs Independente SP
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paulinense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Liborge
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.53
Avg xA / game 2.16

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paulinense 10 / 100
Independente SP 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paulinense Independente SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paulinense found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (14 games).

Independente SP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Paulinense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paulinense VS Independente SP
1.25 Goals Scored 3.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paulinense

(Home)
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
12 Jul
Paulinense
0 : 1
Independente SP
05 Jul
Paulinense
2 : 0
Sao Carlos
27 Jun
Sao Carlos
0 : 1
Paulinense
20 Jun
Guarulhos
1 : 2
Paulinense
Page 1 of 3

Independente SP

(Away)
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
12 Jul
Paulinense
0 : 1
Independente SP
05 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 0
Tupa
28 Jun
Tupa
0 : 2
Independente SP
20 Jun
Independente SP
17 : 0
Catanduvense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP4
Tupa0
Paulinense3
Sao Carlos0
Flamengo SP2
Audax-SP1
Matonense1
Assisense0
Itaqua6
Paulinia FU1
Maua FC3
Uniao Mogi5
Jose Bonifacio EC4
Manthiqueira1
America SP3
Santacruzense0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP3
Paulinense1
Flamengo SP4
Matonense1
Itaqua5
Uniao Mogi1
Jose Bonifacio EC2
America SP4
Semi-finals
Independente SP-
Flamengo SP-
Itaqua-
America SP-
Final
TBD-
TBD-