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Paulista vs Desportivo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Camilo
(Penalty)
77' Event
de Oliveira Sousa M.
89' Event
Monteiro W.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 game between Paulista and Desportivo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paulista.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Paulista
6%
Draws
4%
Desportivo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Paulista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Desportivo haven't matched Paulista's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Paulista a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Paulista have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Paulista Clean Sheet 68%
Desportivo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paulista Desportivo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.38
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Paulista A3
Paulista vs Desportivo
2:1
Sep 25, 2020 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Paulista
2:3
Mar 15, 2017 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Paulista
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paulista Compare

Top Goalscorer Monteiro W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Desportivo Compare

Top Goalscorer de Oliveira Sousa M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paulista 95 / 100
Desportivo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paulista Desportivo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Desportivo conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Paulista remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Desportivo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paulista VS Desportivo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portuguesa Santista15120326:936
2Marilia1595123:632
3Rio Preto EC1585224:1329
4XV de Jau1583416:1127
5Rio Claro1574419:1625
6Uniao Barbarense1566316:1424
7EC Sao Bernardo1565422:1523
8Paulista1565420:1323
9Uniao Sao Joao1564516:1522
10Catanduva FC1556416:1521
11Bandeirante1546515:1918
12Rio Branco SP1544713:2416
13Francana15311113:2210
14Itapirense15231014:269
15Desportivo151598:258
16Uniao Suzano15121210:285