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Paulista vs EC Sao Bernardo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Kevin Malthus

AI Match Summary

EC Sao Bernardo in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored EC Sao Bernardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Paulista
15%
Draws
39%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paulista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • EC Sao Bernardo average 1.34 goals a game right now, well clear of Paulista's 1.06.
  • EC Sao Bernardo are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Paulista Clean Sheet 16%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paulista EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 9
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.06 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Paulista A3
Paulista vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:1
Feb 1, 2020 Paulista A3
Paulista vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paulista Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Kevin Malthus
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paulista 19 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paulista EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Sao Bernardo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Paulista scored in 61% of their last 31 outings.

EC Sao Bernardo let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Paulista went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paulista VS EC Sao Bernardo
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paulista

(Home)
07 Sept
Paulista
2 : 3
Gremio Prudente
31 Aug
Gremio Prudente
4 : 0
Paulista
22 Aug
Primavera EC
1 : 2
Paulista
15 Aug
Paulista
1 : 0
Juventus-SP
09 Aug
Osasco Sporting
1 : 1
Paulista
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EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)