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Pavia vs Arconatese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Bernardi A.
86' Event
Raballo A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Pavia and Arconatese finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Pavia
35%
Draws
32%
Arconatese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pavia come out ahead of Arconatese on wins alone.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Pavia taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Pavia Clean Sheet 68%
Arconatese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Arconatese
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 5
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.9 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pavia vs Arconatese
1:1
Feb 25, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Arconatese vs Pavia
2:0
Oct 22, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Pavia vs Arconatese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Raballo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Arconatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Bernardi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 95 / 100
Arconatese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Arconatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pavia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Arconatese conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Pavia found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Pavia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Arconatese
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
07 Oct
Pavia
1 : 3
Sant'Angelo
04 Oct
Correggese
2 : 1
Pavia
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
Page 1 of 6

Arconatese

(Away)
04 Oct
Arconatese
1 : 1
Pro Sesto
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Arconatese
0 : 3
Pro Patria
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
12 Sept
Arconatese
1 : 1
Correggese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)