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Pavia vs Oltrepo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Pavia Logo

Pavia

0 - 0
FT
Oltrepo Logo

Oltrepo

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Pavia
35%
Draws
19%
Oltrepo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pavia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Oltrepo lately — more wins on the board than Pavia.
  • Win probability leans Pavia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Pavia have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Pavia Clean Sheet 68%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Oltrepo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 11 5
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Oltrepo vs Pavia
0:3
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Oltrepo
0:0
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs Pavia
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 95 / 100
Oltrepo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Oltrepo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pavia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Pavia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Pavia's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Oltrepo has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Oltrepo registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Oltrepo
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
12 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Pavia
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
Page 1 of 6

Oltrepo

(Away)
27 Sept
Pro Sesto
6 : 1
Oltrepo
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Pavia
06 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 1
Oltrepo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)