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Pavia vs Piacenza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Serie D 2025/2026
Pavia Logo

Pavia

Wed, Oct 22, 2025
1 - 2
01:00 PM
Piacenza Logo

Piacenza

Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Quaggio A.
86' Event
Mustacchio M.
1' Event
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Piacenza advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Pavia
35%
Draws
50%
Piacenza
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Piacenza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Pavia haven't matched Piacenza's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Piacenza's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Piacenza arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Piacenza, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Pavia Clean Sheet 10%
Piacenza Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Piacenza
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 19
Draws 9 3
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 0.9 2
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 22, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Pavia vs Piacenza
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Quaggio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Piacenza Compare

Top Goalscorer Mustacchio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 10 / 100
Piacenza 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Piacenza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Piacenza Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Pavia scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Piacenza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Pavia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Piacenza
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
07 Oct
Pavia
1 : 3
Sant'Angelo
04 Oct
Correggese
2 : 1
Pavia
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
Page 1 of 6

Piacenza

(Away)
07 Oct
Lentigione
1 : 3
Piacenza
04 Oct
Piacenza
4 : 0
Scanzorosciate
20 Sept
Piacenza
3 : 1
Real Calepina
16 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 1
Piacenza
13 Sept
Piacenza
0 : 1
Virtus Verona
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0