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Pavonese vs Tritium - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Secli F.
29' Event
Andreoli L.
39' Event
Zuddas A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B game between Pavonese and Tritium finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pavonese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Pavonese
30%
Draws
16%
Tritium
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pavonese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tritium come out ahead of Pavonese on wins alone.
  • Pavonese are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Pavonese Clean Sheet 20%
Tritium Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavonese Tritium
Matches Played 5 29
Wins 2 3
Draws 1 8
Losses 2 18
Goals Scored 1 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Pavonese vs Tritium
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavonese Compare

Top Goalscorer Secli F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Andreoli L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Tritium Compare

Top Goalscorer Zuddas A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader D'Arcangelo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavonese 76 / 100
Tritium 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavonese Tritium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pavonese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tritium let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Pavonese scored in 60% of their last 5 outings.

Pavonese has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pavonese VS Tritium
0.83 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavonese

(Home)
27 Sept
Virtus Verona
0 : 1
Pavonese
20 Sept
Pavonese
3 : 2
Tritium
16 Sept
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Pavonese
12 Sept
Pavonese
0 : 2
Club Milano
05 Sept
Chievo
1 : 0
Pavonese

Tritium

(Away)
07 Oct
Villa Valle
2 : 1
Tritium
03 Oct
Chievo
5 : 0
Tritium
27 Sept
Tritium
2 : 2
Rovato Vertovese
20 Sept
Pavonese
3 : 2
Tritium
16 Sept
Tritium
1 : 1
Villa Valle
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chievo 6 5 0 1 14:6 15
2 Nibbiano & Valtidone 6 5 0 1 7:2 15
3 Piacenza 5 3 1 1 10:4 10
4 Pro Palazzolo 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
5 Ciserano-Bergamo 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
6 AC Leon 6 2 3 1 9:7 9
7 Caldiero Terme 6 2 3 1 9:8 9
8 AC Milan U23 4 3 0 1 8:7 9
9 Brusaporto 6 3 0 3 7:8 9
10 Real Calepina 6 2 2 2 11:9 8
11 Virtus Verona 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
12 Villa Valle 6 1 4 1 6:6 7
13 Pavonese 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
14 Scanzorosciate 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
15 Club Milano 6 1 1 4 4:7 4
16 Rovato Vertovese 6 0 3 3 8:12 3
17 Fiorenzuola 6 0 2 4 1:7 2
18 Tritium 6 0 2 4 7:15 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)