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Paysandu PA vs Capitao Poco

Brazil Brazil

Paraense 2025 Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu), Belem
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Welliton
25'
Klener S.
32' Event
Marlon Douglas

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Paysandu PA advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Paysandu PA
15%
Draws
64%
Capitao Poco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capitao Poco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paysandu PA come out ahead of Capitao Poco on wins alone.
  • Capitao Poco are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Paysandu PA have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paysandu PA, who have won 3 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Paysandu PA have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Paysandu PA Clean Sheet 18%
Capitao Poco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paysandu PA Capitao Poco
Matches Played 45 30
Wins 26 13
Draws 4 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.73 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.16 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Capitao Poco
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Capitao Poco
2:0
Jan 19, 2025 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Capitao Poco
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paysandu PA Compare

Top Goalscorer Marlon Douglas
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rossi
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Capitao Poco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paysandu PA 20 / 100
Capitao Poco 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paysandu PA Capitao Poco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capitao Poco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paysandu PA scored in 78% of their last 45 games.

Capitao Poco has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Paysandu PA has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Paysandu PA VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Paysandu PA

(Home)
03 Oct
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
26 Sept
Internacional de Limeira
2 : 0
Paysandu PA
20 Sept
Paysandu PA
2 : 2
Internacional de Limeira
13 Sept
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
07 Sept
Paysandu PA
1 : 2
Brusque
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Capitao Poco

(Away)
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Cameta
1 : 2
Capitao Poco
22 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 1
Tuna Luso
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1
Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0
Castanhal
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Remo 2
Santa Rosa 0
Castanhal 3
Tuna Luso 4
Paysandu PA 2
Capitao Poco 0
Bragantino PA 0
Aguia De Maraba 1
Semi-finals
Remo 2
Tuna Luso 1
Paysandu PA 3
Aguia De Maraba 1
Final
Remo 4
Paysandu PA 3