Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paysandu PA vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio

Brazil Brazil

Copa Norte Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Veras I.
35' Event
Castro
45' Event
Marcinho
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Paysandu PA advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Paysandu PA
6%
Draws
4%
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Paysandu PA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paysandu PA come out ahead of Gremio Atletico Sampaio on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Paysandu PA's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Paysandu PA have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paysandu PA, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 49%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Paysandu PA Clean Sheet 68%
Gremio Atletico Sampaio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paysandu PA Gremio Atletico Sampaio
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 18 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 2.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 Copa Norte
Paysandu PA vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paysandu PA Compare

Top Goalscorer Castro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Italo Carvalho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Gremio Atletico Sampaio Compare

Top Goalscorer Veras I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paysandu PA 95 / 100
Gremio Atletico Sampaio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paysandu PA Gremio Atletico Sampaio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAY Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paysandu PA's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Gremio Atletico Sampaio has conceded goals in 79% of their last 34 outings.

Difficult form: Gremio Atletico Sampaio registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paysandu PA VS Gremio Atletico Sampaio
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.8
88% Over 1.5 60%
75% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 60%

Recent Form & Match History

Paysandu PA

(Home)
12 Jul
Paysandu PA
3 : 2
Guarani
05 Jul
Ypiranga FC
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
27 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 3
Santa Cruz
21 Jun
Maranhao
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
14 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 2
Internacional de Limeira
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Gremio Atletico Sampaio

(Away)
14 Jun
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
3 : 1
Manaus FC
30 May
Sao Raimundo RR
4 : 0
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
23 May
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
16 May
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
2 : 3
Monte Roraima
10 May
Manauara
0 : 0
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nacional-AM (Manaus)541014:113
2Paysandu PA53028:109
3Guapore52124:67
4Trem520311:116
5Independencia Futebol Clube51224:85
6Gremio Atletico Sampaio510410:153
Promotion - Copa Norte (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Aguia De Maraba541012:613
2Porto Velho531110:510
3Amazonas52129:67
4Remo52126:67
5Galvez51049:173
6Monte Roraima50239:152
Promotion - Copa Norte (Play Offs)