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Pena Deportiva vs Collerense

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Rosa S.
55' Event
Ortiz N.

AI Match Summary

Pena Deportiva in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pena Deportiva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Pena Deportiva
15%
Draws
73%
Collerense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Collerense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Pena Deportiva have won more games recently than Collerense.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Collerense taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Pena Deportiva Clean Sheet 19%
Collerense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pena Deportiva Collerense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 9 8
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.78 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 2.35 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs Collerense
2:0
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Collerense vs Pena Deportiva
2:2
Feb 25, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Collerense vs Pena Deportiva
3:0
Oct 12, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs Collerense
2:1
Mar 12, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Collerense vs Pena Deportiva
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pena Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ortiz N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.18

Collerense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pena Deportiva 20 / 100
Collerense 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pena Deportiva Collerense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Collerense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pena Deportiva found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).

Collerense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Collerense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Pena Deportiva VS Collerense
2.5 Goals Scored 1.6
1 Goals Conceded 2.2
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 80%
38% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Pena Deportiva

(Home)
27 Sept
Pena Deportiva
0 : 2
Real Murcia B
20 Sept
Ilicitano
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
13 Sept
Pena Deportiva
1 : 1
Yeclano
06 Sept
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
14 Aug
UD Ibiza
5 : 0
Pena Deportiva
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Collerense

(Away)
29 Aug
Collerense
1 : 2
Santanyi
10 May
Pena Deportiva
2 : 0
Collerense
02 May
Collerense
2 : 1
Portmany
25 Apr
Rotlet Molinar
2 : 5
Collerense
19 Apr
Constancia
4 : 0
Collerense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 34 26 6 2 105:22 84
2 Manacor 34 24 5 5 71:39 77
3 Pena Deportiva 34 20 8 6 69:30 68
4 Constancia 34 19 5 10 62:29 62
5 Llosetense 34 16 10 8 59:40 58
6 Formentera 34 13 13 8 40:29 52
7 Inter Ibiza 34 15 5 14 42:43 50
8 Mercadal 34 15 4 15 31:45 49
9 Cardassar 34 12 8 14 38:55 44
10 Platges de Calvia 34 12 6 16 41:43 42
11 Binissalem 34 10 11 13 26:34 41
12 Santanyi 34 11 8 15 43:58 41
13 Alcudia 34 11 5 18 37:62 38
14 CD Son Cladera 34 11 5 18 41:63 38
15 Portmany 34 8 6 20 25:50 30
16 Collerense 34 6 10 18 41:64 28
17 Felanitx 34 5 11 18 32:62 26
18 Rotlet Molinar 34 5 8 21 34:69 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 (Play Offs)