Sport Picks

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Pena Deportiva vs Constancia

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Diez J.
33' Event
Montori A.
41' Event
Ferrer M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Pena Deportiva advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Pena Deportiva
20%
Draws
70%
Constancia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Constancia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Pena Deportiva haven't matched Constancia's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Constancia a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Constancia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pena Deportiva, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Pena Deportiva Clean Sheet 14%
Constancia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pena Deportiva Constancia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 17
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.8 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs Constancia
2:1
May 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Constancia vs Pena Deportiva
1:1
Mar 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs Constancia
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Constancia vs Pena Deportiva
1:0
Mar 10, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs Constancia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pena Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Diez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Montori A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Constancia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrer M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pena Deportiva 10 / 100
Constancia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pena Deportiva Constancia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Constancia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Pena Deportiva scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Constancia let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.

Pena Deportiva has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pena Deportiva VS Constancia
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Pena Deportiva

(Home)
27 Sept
Pena Deportiva
0 : 2
Real Murcia B
20 Sept
Ilicitano
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
13 Sept
Pena Deportiva
1 : 1
Yeclano
06 Sept
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
14 Aug
UD Ibiza
5 : 0
Pena Deportiva
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Constancia

(Away)
26 Sept
Constancia
2 : 0
Alcudia
20 Sept
Cardassar
1 : 0
Constancia
13 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Constancia
05 Sept
Constancia
3 : 0
Arenal
24 May
Pena Deportiva
2 : 1
Constancia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Manacor 3
Llosetense 2
Pena Deportiva 3
Constancia 2
Final
Manacor 2
Pena Deportiva 5